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For years, the right-handed batter’s box has quietly been a habitat under attack. Power hitters who reside there permanently have become an endangered species because of a confluence of changes to their environment.
Scouts, coaches, and executives — the experts charged with preserving this type of slugger — have seen some regrowth this season on the home run leaderboard, but there’s reason to fear that such gains may be temporal.Although eight of the top 10 home run hitters in 2014 are right-handed, such success comes on the heels of some very fallow years, and it belies the larger trend. Only eight right-handed hitters reached 30 home runs in 2013, and only 36 hit 20 homers, both the fewest in a non-strike-shortened season since 1992. Only 11 righties posted a slugging percentage above.500 last year, also the fewest in any season since 1992. And even though the top of the current leaderboard is righty heavy, there’s been no appreciable change in the overall rate of right-handed home run hitting: The overall HR/AB and slugging numbers for righties in 2014 are only a modicum better than the 2013 figures, and they are still worse than 2011 and 2012.“It’s hard to find power,” Braves general manager Frank Wren says, “and it’s really hard to find right-handed power in today’s game.”Wren’s recent actions reflect that reality: Concerned with a lefty-dominated lineup two years ago, he hoarded power-hitting right-handed bats, adding B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis to the mix. Getty Imagespublished by Jon Roegele at The Hardball Times concludes that “there has been a very clear expansion of the called strike zone down around the knees” and, as a result, “pitchers have been keeping the ball down more frequently.”Most scouting maxims bring a kernel of truth, even if they’re grossly exaggerated, and one wonders if the old adage about left-handed hitters being better low-ball hitters applies here.
Law, however, thinks this belief might stem from selection bias: While scouts have long lauded lefties’ rotational low-ball swings, which tend to generate more power and loft, Law wonders if righties with the same abilities are sometimes overlooked.There’s also been a documented rise of, and that pitch typically attacks the bottom of the zone and is hard for hitters to elevate. Data from Brooks Baseball and Pitch Info indicates that the sinker is a predominantly right-handed pitch, at least among starters, and is most effective when thrown from a same-sided pitcher. More natural right-handed players are learning to hit lefty or switch-hit. Getty ImagesThough only about 10 percent of the population is naturally left-handed, baseball has grown accustomed to filling more than a quarter of its workforce with lefties.
The reason is simple: Hitting from the opposite side to create a platoon advantage is more attractive to scouts.“In the draft room, saying a player is right-right is a ding,” the AL scout says. “It’s a knock against you.”An NL scouting director calls hitting left and throwing right the preferred combination. Adds MacDonald: “More kids are wanting to learn to hit left-handed than ever before. Hitting is a learned behavior. A lot of kids understand, ‘If I can play the middle of the field and hit left-handed, I’m more valuable.’”In the first half of the 18 full seasons since the strike, there have been an average of 222 players who threw right-handed but batted left or switch-hit; in the second half of that period, it has increased to an average of 239 players.“I did it with my own son,” Wren says, referring to his youngest son, Jordan, who plays at Samford University. “I have a son who’s right-handed, but he’s never hit any way but left-handed.”MacDonald offers an esoteric corollary: Most right-handed hitters are right-hand dominant, so the top hand of the swing is the stronger hand, which decreases loft in the swing.
Natural righties who hit left-handed have the opposite situation, with a dominant bottom hand, which increases loft. B allpark construction tends to help lefties and hurt rightiesMore parks have short porches in right field than left field, which favors left-handed pull hitters.A 2007 article on The Hardball Times to each directional field and gap for all 30 stadiums. The baseline for average was a score of 100. At the time, only four parks had a park factor of 120 or greater to left field, while 13 rated at least 120 to right field. The overall average to right field was 114 and to right-center was 108, compared to 108 to left field and 104 to left-center.While more recent data weighted in the same way is not available, five new ballparks have opened since that study, and only two replaced parks with 120 scores to right field. While the new Yankee Stadium has at least the same favorability, Target Field may not. Increased emphasis on defense hurts right-handed hitters moreThis has nothing to do with the increase in over-shifting and the other defensive alignment adjustments that don’t affect home run totals, and everything to do with the personnel manning key defensive positions.Several defensive positions, including third base and the premium up-the-middle spots of catcher, shortstop, and second base, are only played by right-handed throwers.
Despite the trend addressed in section no. 3, most right-handed throwers remain right-handed hitters. Thus, if a team chooses to play a defensive-minded player over an offensive-minded one, that decision is far more likely to hurt right-handed hitting stats because of the positional bias. Players manning catcher, second, third, and short accounted for 29.9 percent of the 20-homer seasons in 2013, the lowest proportion since 2002.So don’t be fooled by the current righty-dominated home run leaderboard, and not merely because it’s still June. Those top-heavy power numbers are deceptive, masking a far more pervasive problem.Joe Lemire is a freelance baseball writer living in New York City. He is a former Sports Illustrated staff writer whose work also appears in The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and on Sports on Earth.
On 28, Aug 2014It’s almost September, which means it’s almost time for scarves, pumpkins, and to cease wearing white. It’s also time for what will hopefully be meaningful baseball and the most anticipated September happening — roster expansions and September call-ups.The Indians have had an up-and-down season that has resulted in an average record. Their starting pitchers have been through the rotating door of Cleveland, Columbus, and even the bullpen more times than fans can count, though they seem to have finally reached a fairly steady pattern, provided the younger pitchers keep up their strong performances. The bullpen was lights-out for most of the season and the team’s saving grace, though ’s past weekend left fans with a bit of a sour taste in their mouths, despite the runs attributed to Allen being also attributed as unearned. Defense has been laughable at times, and hitting is virtually non-existent, save for that kid.Walters, and have brought new life into the team in recent weeks, giving fans excitement about the potential of new additions to the team. The three players are young and have spent most of their seasons on minor league rosters, but big league tribulations have given all three a chance to prove their worth.As the roster expands in the coming week, it opens the door for more young players to move into Progressive Field and demonstrate why they should be more consistent pieces of the Tribe’s on-field presence.
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The Indians will likely also bring up some older players who have bounced between Cleveland Columbus all season, as the roster now has a place for those of them who were optioned to make room for someone else.So who should the Indians look at as September draws near? What are they missing, and who can provide it?If call-ups and roster expansion had happened a month ago, starting pitchers would be sure to be heavily considered by the Indians.
Threw a no-hitter for the Clippers on July 30, which would have made him a prime target for the Indians to consider. However, with the now fairly-solid rotation of, and, finding a place for Cloyd would be a bit of challenge.will likely be an addition, however.
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He has bounced between Cleveland and Columbus for much of the season and currently owns a 6-1 record and 2.18 ERA in the minors this season. Should McAllister be able to deliver a solid performance, the Indians have a few options for the pitcher: they could use a six-man rotation, could rely on Kluber on a regular basis and rotate through a five-man rotation to fill in the days after him, or could move McAllister to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. A spot for McAllister will undoubtedly be made, the only question is where that may be.Another member of the 40-man roster, has also made appearances on the big league stage this season, appearing in three games for the Tribe. He boasts a 3-2 record and 2.60 ERA in relief for the Clippers. At 28, Adams isn’t getting any younger, which means giving him future chances to demonstrate just how he can help the team are necessary.
Is in the same boat as Adams, being the same age on the 40-man, meaning seeing him more late in the season is another possibility. He played eight games in Akron this season and has appeared in 18 in Columbus, with a 1-1 overall record on the season and 2.62 ERA.Pitching aside, what the Tribe really needs to focus on as the rosters expand are the players who can provide defensive support as well as a pop in the offense.
Of players who have spent most of their season with the Clippers, leads the group in batting average, posting.302 in 113 games. The first baseman has only four errors on the season, proving him an asset on the field, as well. With out for the year, an extra first baseman can certainly not hurt the Tribe. Aguilar also boasts 18 homers and 73 RBI and an OPS of.898. He is on the 40-man roster and appeared in eight games for the Tribe this season, driving in two runs in 16 at-bats.
The youngster has the potential to make a big difference at the plate, and September is as good a time as any to see if that potential can become reality.Third baseman also has power at the plate with a.276 average and 13 home runs. He started the year in Akron, where he hit.300 in 24 games before earning a promotion to Columbus. In 99 games, Urshela has 103 hits, 27 doubles, and six triples, while driving in 65 runs and drawing 29 walks.
His.818 OPS suggests a player who should see the Major League stage soon — will this September be time? He, like Aguilar, has four errors on the season, and appears to make a strong case for a call-up. The team cannot risk sloppy play and, much like their abundance of relievers, can never have enough options for the infield.One of the biggest questions of all, though, is, of course, that of. With out of the picture, fans are clamoring for their introduction to the young superstar at Progressive Field. It has been said that seeing Lindor at short sooner rather than later for the Indians in 2015 is basically a guarantee, meaning big league experience is getting to be a necessity. Is this season going to be his big break?Lindor started the year in Akron, where he played 88 games and hit.278 and had a.741 OPS. In 32 games in Columbus, Lindor is hitting.281. His real talent, though, is on the field.
Lindor will likely become one of the best defensive shortstops in the game at some point in his career. He had a.967 fielding percentage in Akron and currently boasts a.978 fielding percentage in Columbus. He will be a huge improvement over Cabrera, but again, the question remains as to when that will happen.If Lindor is called up in September, what happens to Jose Ramirez? Ramirez has become a strong asset to the Indians lineup and also needs the playing time in order to improve his own performance in the big leagues — sitting him for the rest of the season would hinder that development.My prediction is that Lindor does not receive a spot on the expanded roster in September, and instead receives an invitation to Major League Spring Training next season. At that point, he will get his opportunity to shine with the team and will prove exactly when an addition to the Major League roster should happen.
The Clippers have secured a playoff spot for this season, where Lindor will prove to be invaluable. The safest bet is likely to keep Lindor with the Clippers for the rest of this season and have the door wide open for him to really make his mark come 2015.The Indians have strong prospects on the cusp of making their impact in the big leagues. September will allow a few of those to prove themselves to the organization — the club is already being helped in a major way by young players, meaning an addition of a few of their younger teammates can, hopefully, only continue to give the Tribe that extra push they are looking for and set them up well for a positive 2015.Photo: Jason Miller/Getty Images.